Track Record
Every verdict is automatically graded at the 24-hour horizon against the realised BTC price. All statistics below are based on live verdicts only — backtest data is labelled separately.
Running the P-Score model (v1), adopted 2026-06-12. Directional accuracy (Buy / Sell) is the headline skill measure; Wait quality is graded on a separate volatility-scaled band.
Live Track Record
Based on 669 verdicts graded at the 24h horizon (live source, rolling 90-day window).
Accuracy by Verdict State
Per-state accuracy at the 24h horizon (last 90 days, live verdicts).
Edge Tracker
| Condition | Win Rate | Avg Return | Profit Factor | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy · Risk < 30 | insufficient history (n=0) | |||
| Sell · Risk < 30 | 24.9% | −1.31% | 0.13 | 225 |
| Buy or Sell · Risk < 30 | 24.9% | −1.31% | 0.13 | 225 |
| Buy · Confidence ≥ 70 | insufficient history (n=0) | |||
| Strong Buy (all) | insufficient history (n=0) | |||
| Strong Sell (all) | 19.5% | −1.54% | 0.12 | 133 |
Conditional performance over 669 live verdicts graded at the 24h horizon (rolling 90-day window). Advisory only — these cohorts do not change any verdict.
Recent Graded Verdicts
Verdicts are graded 24h after they're issued, so the newest row here is about a day old. Times shown in your local timezone.
| Date | Verdict | BTC Price | 24h Move | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 2026, 04:30 | Sell | $65,898 | -0.12% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 04:10 | Sell | $66,146 | -0.59% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 04:05 | Wait | $66,204 | -0.58% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 03:50 | Sell | $66,109 | -0.51% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 03:30 | Sell | $65,944 | -0.24% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 03:10 | Sell | $65,747 | -0.06% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 02:50 | Sell | $65,823 | +0.02% | ✗ Incorrect |
| Jun 16, 2026, 02:30 | Sell | $65,746 | +0.13% | ✗ Incorrect |
| Jun 16, 2026, 02:15 | Wait | $66,040 | -0.30% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 02:10 | Wait | $66,244 | -0.70% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 01:55 | Wait | $66,337 | -0.76% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 01:50 | Strong Sell | $66,367 | -0.82% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 01:40 | Wait | $66,356 | -1.10% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 01:20 | Wait | $66,272 | -1.12% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 01:00 | Wait | $66,227 | -0.76% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 00:45 | Wait | $66,362 | -0.89% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 00:40 | Strong Sell | $66,365 | -0.90% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 00:20 | Wait | $66,328 | -0.90% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 00:00 | Wait | $66,261 | -0.94% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 15, 2026, 23:45 | Wait | $66,210 | -0.95% | ✓ Correct |
Historical Backtest
Backtest accuracy (294,641 verdicts, 2018–Jun 2026) — derived from historical bar replay, not live grading.
How It Works
A Buy or Strong Buy verdict is graded correct when the BTC price is higher after 24 hours. A Sell or Strong Sell is correct when price is lower. A Wait verdict is correct only when the 24h price move stays within ±1.0 × ATR% (the 14-day Average True Range as a percentage of price) and the maximum intra-period excursion is under 1.5 × that band. Scaling the band to volatility keeps Wait an honest measure across calm and violent markets.
Grading uses a 15-minute lateness allowance — verdicts graded more than 15 minutes after their horizon are recorded as ungradeable rather than scored against a stale window.
Past accuracy is not indicative of future results. BTC Verdict is an educational tool, not financial advice. See Terms.